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Weekly Market Analysis from 2nd June 2025
BY TIO Staff
|June 2, 2025This week’s major market moving events are focused on data that could potentially affect the USD, EUR, CAD, AUD and the CHF. This week includes the NFP, employment and inflation data, as well as two forecasted interest rate reductions by the ECB and the BOC.
Continue reading to learn more.
This week's major market moving events
Monday, 2nd June
The week starts with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which previously registered 48.7. Forecasts suggest a slight increase to 49.3, but a reading below 50 typically signals contraction within the manufacturing sector, while a figure above 50 is indicative of expansion.
Tuesday, 3rd June
The Swiss CPI (Consumer Price Index) month-over-month is expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.2%, signalling a potential increase in inflationary pressures. While this remains within a manageable range, any surprises to the upside could impact future money policy decisions. Furthermore, the U.S JOLTS Job Openings report will monitor insight into the underlying strength of the labour market.
Wednesday, 4th June
The Australian GDP q/q is forecasted to contract from the previous figure 0.6% to 0.4%. While still in positive territory, this softer growth may influence future RBA policy considerations. Later in the day, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce the Overnight Rate. Analysts forecast a 25 basis point reduction from 2.75% to 2.50%. The outcome of this decision has the potential to significantly impact the CAD. Then in the U.S., the Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to increase from 62K to 110K, pointing to possible strength in the labor market. Also out of the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is forecast at 52.0, suggesting modest expansion in the services sector from the previous result of 51.6.
Thursday, 5th June
The European Central Bank’s Main Refinancing Rate is forecasted to decrease from 2.40% to 2.15%, indicating a possible pivot toward a more accommodative policy stance in response to softening economic conditions. Meanwhile, in the U.S., weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to drop slightly to 232K from the previous value of 240K, suggesting ongoing resilience in the labor market and potentially reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach moving forward.
Friday, 6th June
Canada's labor market will be in focus with the upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate releases. The previous report showed a gain of 7.4K jobs, while the unemployment rate was held at 6.9%.. In the U.S., key labor market data is also due, with Non-Farm Employment Change, forecasted to slow from the previous value of 177K to the forecast of 130K. However, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, suggesting wage pressures may potentially still be building. The Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%, indicating overall labor market conditions remain stable.
Stay informed with our economic calendar
The following economic events and data is provided by Trading Central and Morningstar Research Inc. They have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
All Times are in GMT+3
Monday 2nd June
| 5:00PM | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| 8:00PM | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
Tuesday 3rd June
| 9:30AM | CHF | CPI m/m |
| Tentative | JPY | BoJ GOv Ueda Speaks |
| 5:00PM | USD | JOLTS Job Openings |
Wednesday 4th June
| 4:30AM | AUD | GDP q/q |
| 3:15PM | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 4:45PM | CAD | BoC Rate Statement |
| 4:45PM | CAD | Overnight Rate |
| 5:00PM | USD | ISM Services PMI |
| 5:30PM | CAD | BoC Press Conference |
Thursday 5th June
| 3:15PM | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate |
| 3:15PM | EUR | Monetary Policy Statement |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 3:45PM | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
Friday 6th June
| 3:30PM | CAD | Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | CAD | Unemployment Rate |
| 3:30PM | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Rate |
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
EUR/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 1.0700, the currency pair could rise towards the 1.1900 and 1.1700 target levels. Conversely, a move below 1.0700 could see the pair decline to the support levels at 1.0360 and 1.0525. The RSI is above the neutrality level of 50, and could potentially be signalling bullish momentum.
USD/CAD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.4020, the currency pair could fall towards the 1.3420 and 1.3605 support levels. Conversely, a move above 1.4020 could see the pair rise to the target levels at 1.4540 and 1.4265. The RSI is approaching the 30 level, and could potentially be approaching oversold territory.
AUD/USD
If the price remains above the pivot at 0.6385, the currency pair could rise towards the 0.6680 and 0.6540 target levels. Conversely, a move below 0.6385 could see the pair decline to the support levels at 0.5912 and 0.5800. The RSI is above the neutrality level of 50, and could be signalling potentially bullish momentum.
How will you trade the markets this week?
While research has been undertaken to compile the above content, it remains an informational and educational piece only. None of the content provided constitutes any form of investment advice.
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